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European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has predicted a need for an extra 28,200 passenger and freighter aircraft valued at almost $4tn over the next two decades.

In its latest global market forecast for 2012-2031, the company gave its forward-looking view of the sector’s growth after considering various factors, such as urbanisation, environmental impact, emerging markets, population growth, and innovation.

Of the total 28,200 aircraft, more than 27,350 will be passenger aircraft worth $3.7tn.

The passenger traffic is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.7% over the period, during which new models will replace some 10,350 airplanes.

It expects the world’s passenger fleet to grow 110% from the current 15,500 to more than 32,550, while the freighter fleet is likely to double from 1,600 to 3,000.

"In 20 years from now, China’s domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow in our forecast."

Airbus, a division of European Aeronautic Defence and Space, said that the emerging markets would see more than half of all traffic growth.

The Asia Pacific region will have 35% of new aeroplane deliveries, followed by Europe and North America with 21% each. In terms of value, China is expected to top the list of largest markets followed by the US, UAE and India.

Airbus COO Customers John Leahy said besides the growth in international traffic, by 2031, the US, China, Western Europe and India will have the world’s extensive domestic traffic flows, accounting for a third of all worldwide.

"In 20 years from now, China’s domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow in our forecast," Leahy said.

Some 1,700 very large aircraft, valued at $600bn, are expected to be delivered by 2031, of which more than 1,330 will be passenger aircraft worth $500bn.

Approximately $1.7tn worth of twin-aisle aircraft such as A330 and the A350 XWB, and in excess of 19,500 single-aisle aircraft worth more than $1.6trn will be delivered during the next two decades.

Image: Airbus COO Customers John Leahy said US, China, Intra Western Europe and India would have the world’s extensive domestic traffic flows by 2031. Photo: courtesy of Airbus SAS.